Predictions for 2013

01/02/13 00:00:00    

By Michael Mealling

I posted this on Facebook on New Years Day but this version is more complete and typo free. There's nothing really earth shattering about these. But then again, progress looks awfully linear in the short term but is surprisingly exponential in the long term. Enjoy:

1) The Supreme Court will declare gay marriage bans unconstitutional in late 2013 or early 2014 because they violate the full faith and credit clause. This may precipitate Waco/Ruby Ridge style confrontations in certain parts of the country.

2) The economy will continue to sputter along but the labor force participation rate will continue sideways as the move to long term social security disability continues. Don't expect non-government components of GDP to break 2.5%.

3) SpaceX will continue to deliver cargo to the ISS. Grasshopper will fly a full profile. Falcon Heavy will roll out but first flight is delayed until 1st half of 2014.

4) Planetary Resources completes its first spacecraft but launch won't be until 2014. Orbital Sciences launches its first COTS demo flight. It reaches orbit but fails approach tests. Someone announces a Cubesat to Mars mission.

4) Both Apple and Google will come out with wristwatch form factor devices. Google Glass will come out but will be a yawn until people start hacking them. Camera based gestures (i.e. Leap Motion) gets the full hypecycle treatment.

6) Google Plus releases an API. Depending on the details this may kill app.net and could begin a slow move of users from Facebook to Google+. It won't be enough to save Google+, though.

7) Democrats will propose a new version of the assault weapons ban but it won't go anywhere in the House or Senate. The Supreme Court will continue to refine the Heller decision.

8) The 2014 mid term election campaign starts on January 1, 2013.

9) Federalism begins to be actively discussed again as a solution to America's ungovernability. OK. That last one isn't a prediction so much as a personal wish of mine. If something like this doesn't happen then expect Permanent Tourist consultancies to become more popular.